Scorecard · building
The 30-day scorecard, closing-line value, and projection accuracy populate here the same way MLB’s do, the moment games grade. The model went live this week, so the first numbers post this weekend. Below is the opening card, in full, with the reasoning behind every pick.
This week’s card & analysis Week 0
Our model has this game at 61.8 combined points against a market total of 56, a 5.8-point gap and the cleanest number on the board. UNLV owns the best Group of Five offense in our ratings behind a bruising run game, and Memphis rebuilt its offense around an Ohio State transfer back, so both sides project to move the ball. Neither defense rates well enough to slow that down, and the number has already been bet down from 59.5. Allegiant Stadium is a dome, so weather is a non-factor. The one caution: both teams are hiding their quarterback decision until kickoff, which caps conviction without changing the projection.
2Over 47Jacksonville State @ N. Dakota State
−1086.7
Our number is 54.3 in a game the market has at 47, a 7.3-point gap and the biggest disagreement on the slate. Both teams rate as below-average defenses, and the Fargodome removes weather entirely. The pushback is real: these are two run-first programs, and a game played on the ground burns clock and suppresses scoring. NDSU’s rating is also preseason-only in its first year at this level, exactly the input the model trusts least, and its confidence score reflects that. We’ll take the over at a 7-point edge, but this is the pick most likely to be wrong for a reason the projection cannot see. Size it accordingly.
3North Carolina +9North Carolina @ TCU · Dublin
−1086.3
This is a neutral-site game at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, so neither team gets a home-field bump, and that is the entire bet. Strip the venue edge out and our model has TCU by 5.9 in a game the market prices at 9, which puts North Carolina +9 three points clear of the number. TCU is the better team and deserves to be favored, just not by this much on a field that belongs to nobody. Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed healthy, so there’s no hidden discount in the price. The line moved from −7 to −9, money coming in on the wrong side of our number. We want the points, not the side.
4Under 60.5San Jose State @ USC
−1106.3
Our model projects 56.3 combined points against a market total of 60.5, a 4.2-point gap toward the under. USC rates as one of the best offenses in the country and should score at will, but the model doesn’t see San Jose State holding up its end, it projects the Spartans for roughly 10 points, and a total this high needs the underdog to contribute. The market has pushed this from 58 to 60.5, the wrong direction relative to our number. The scenario that beats us is USC scoring so fast the Coliseum sees a running clock and a garbage-time touchdown, so this is a lean rather than a hammer.
5Under 53.5New Mexico St @ Florida State
−1136.1
Our model has 49.9 combined points against a market total of 53.5, a 3.6-point gap toward the under. The projection is lopsided, Florida State by 30, with New Mexico State held near single digits, and a big favorite that covers by running the ball in the second half is a natural under. New Mexico State named a Furman transfer its starter, and a first-year quarterback against this defense is unlikely to generate the scoring drives the over needs. The total hasn’t moved off its open, so we’re not fighting a market that already agrees with us. This is the smallest edge on the card, which is why it ranks last.